IA REX / News
2013.08.21 00:39

Erdogan To Face The Arabian Nightmare / Milosh Markovich, Stanislav Tarasov

. / This article is available in Russian.

Ramadan lasts for a month. But, according to the chairman of the joint committee of staff chiefs general Martin Dempsey, the standoff between the government army and the opposition in Syria grew into a regional conflict between radical Sunnis and Shiites, and such a struggle could last for another decade. This is the first. Second: why Davutoglu thinks that SC is a democratic structure? And why in one case — the coup in Egypt — Ankara claims that the military overthrew the democratically elected President Mursi there, and the other — against the President of Syria Bashar al Assad — Does Turkey prefer to act according to an obvious undemocratic scenario?

Aydinlik newspaper reports that after the elimination of the president Morsi by military in Egypt a process of restoration of diplomatic relations between Egypt and Syria began, interrupted by the «Muslim Brothers» regime. Besides, when in Qatar the 61-year-old sheikh Hamad bin Khalifa al-Thani handed power to his 33-year-old son sheikh Tamim, says Murat Yetkin from the newspaper Radikal, many Turkish experts have considered that Qatar may withdraw from the coalition with Turkey towards Syria, although some Western and Russian political scientists think that there should not be expected the major changes in the foreign policy of the state by Tamim. Last year Qatar provided financial support to the rebels in Libya, actively assisted to the Syrian opposition and the Egyptian Muslim brotherhood, supported the Palestinian grouping Hamas. But now Qatar congratulated the new acting president of Egypt with his appointment. The same way behaved UAE and Saudi Arabia, who expressed readiness to provide loans and grants for 8 billion dollars to Egypt immediately after the removal from power of president Morsi.

Thus, the pre-existed triangle Egypt-Turkey-Qatar can be considered as collapsed. Turkey was thrown overboard. In our opinion there is only one main reason — the sake of Turkey’s ruling Justice and Development Party on the shoulders «of the Muslim Brotherhood» to strengthen its position as a regional leader and begin to put pressure on the situation in the Persian Gulf has failed. Now before Turkey opens a real prospect of being isolated in the region. The Egyptian Foreign Ministry has summoned the Turkish ambassador in Cairo, calling on Ankara through him «not to interfere in the internal affairs of Egypt.»

But back to Syria. According to Dimitri Simes from the American Nixon Center, after the comming of the military into power in Egypt, it is likely that the U.S. will change its policy towards Syria. The U.S. Congress has already blocked military aid to the Syrian opposition and voted to impose strict limits on funding the Syrian opposition, fearing that the weapons could fall into the hands of terrorist groups. But why Washington does not adjust the policies of Ankara what was observed during the «Arab Spring?».

It seems that the USA began to «surrender» Erdogan as the previous president of Egypt Mursi, refusing to support him during the protest movement associated with the reconstruction of Gezi Park. Now, as the Zaman newspaper reported, citing the results of the survey, 49.9% of Turkish citizens believe that the government of Erdogan «is becoming increasingly authoritarian and repressive.» However, the survey was conducted in Turkey from 3 to 12 June. Now, according to many Turkish experts the number of opponents of the government in the country has increased significantly. In such situation the statement of Turkish Foreign Minister Davutoglu that Turkey «will continue to support the Syrian people,» creates the additional challenges for Erdogan.

If the protest movement in Turkey has become «the public defeat of the all-powerful prime minister made by the Turks themselves» his further involvement in the Syrian crisis could be a «nightmare scenario» for him, according to the Aydinlik newspaper. It is possible that the Erdogan’s «nightmare» will turn into a new political start for some of his fellow party members. It is interesting who will be congratulated in Turkey after the presidential elections by Qatar, UAE and Saudi Arabia?

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