IA REX / News
2013.08.21 00:33

Military Coup In Egypt Leads To The Collapse Of "Political Islam" / Stanislav Tarasov

. / This article is available in Russian.

It was the military who announced the removal from power of president Mohamed Morsi and declared themselves the guarantors of security and stability in the country. The Constitutional court chairman Adli Mansour was attested as a temporary head of state. The military also ordered to arrest 300 members of the party «Muslim Brothers» whose leader was Morsi. The broadcasting of Islamic TV-channels is stopped. But then the curious incidents related to political event qualification begin. The ousted president Morsi managed to leave a record in his microblog of what he believes is happening in the country is a revolution. At the same time, the United States and other countries, even the UN condemned the removal of Morsi, refusing to call the events in Egypt a military coup. First of all, because Morsi and the Egyptian military forces are oriented to the West. Secondly, if you call the Egyptian military coup event, this should result in economic and political sanctions. U.S. and the West have decided to avoid it.

In this regard, president Barack Obama stated that " the U.S. agencies are still learning the possible consequence of new Egyptian shocks«. He also expressed «a deep concern in connection with the decision of the military to suspend the Constitution» and urged Cairo «as soon as possible and with all responsibility to convey the power of democratically elected civilian structures». Also Obama specially emphasized that the United States «will continue cooperation with the Egyptian people for the transition of the Arab Republic of Egypt to democracy» and that «the long-term partnership is based on mutual interests and values». The EU behaves the same way. The Supreme Commissioner of EU on foreign relations lady Catherine Ashton noted that «she is waiting to hold fair presidential elections and the early return to democratic processes».

How long it will take for «the new era of democracy» to come — no one knows in Egypt. And will it really come? A difficult period of understanding the latest revolutionary shocks and identifying its causes. The famous Egyptian writer Ala Aswani sees an interesting cycle of events: after 2011 when Mubarak was ousted, Egypt initially was ruled by Mubarak’s military encirclement and then by the «Muslim Brotherhood», whom he calls «the representatives of the old regime of Egypt.» They were not always fighting against the regime and often entered into an alliance with it and into the parliament. At the same time, according to Aswani «those revolutionary forces which supported the democratic change were pushed back.» And once again the military.

There are many mysteries and political secrets. «Why and for what purposes the Obama’s administration has reversed its previous negative attitude to the „Muslim Brothers“ and began to establish close contacts with this organization?», asks The New York Times. And why the special coordinator of the U.S. Department of transition of power in the middle East William Taylor recently stated that «Washington will be satisfied if Egypt’s parliamentary elections will lead to the victory of the «Muslim brotherhood» and warned the Egyptian army against the military coup.

It seems that Americans conducted a great regional game through «Brothers». As affirms the Lebanese newspaper «Addiyar» in this regard the American scenario was to giv the control over the entire Middle East to «Muslim Brothers» in exchange for their fight against al-Qaida. Washington was convinced that the Muslim brotherhood has a branched structure in most countries in the Middle East and a big political influence. They assigned the special role on Iranian, Turkish, Lebanese and Syrian fronts. The same newspaper Addiyar, writes that a concrete action plan was developed during the meeting, held at the end of 2011 in Frankfurt (Germany) of the head of CIA David Petraeus with the leadership of the Muslim brotherhood. Therefore, when in the middle of June this year the president of Egypt Morsi announced the «final» breaking-off in relations with Syria, it became clear that the «big game» goes into an important phase. But it fell down and the president of Syria Bashar Asad has described the removal from power of president of Egypt Morsi as «the collapse of the ideas of political Islam».

In the broad sense of the word it is so. According to the forecast of the American edition of World Politics Review after the weakening of the positions of the Muslim brotherhood in Egypt, the boomerang of Tahrir can go to Tunisia, Jordan, Turkey, where the head of the government of Recep Tayyip Erdo?an during the protest movement has already began building the defensive positions.

But now the epicenter of the events is in Egypt, where the new authorities will have to solve the tasks of enormous complexity. The Egyptians are depressed by the desperate economic situation and the monetary reserves are rapidly running low. The new authorities may be issued the promised IMF loan for $ 4.8 billion, but the implementation of the requirements of the IMF is capable of even more complicate political situation in the country. Besides, the struggle between the ideological forces may take a different form and lead to the collapse of the state.

So, the situation in Egypt is moving to a new point of bifurcation. If this key-country in the middle East will be thrown in chaos the waves of destabilization will quickly reach the other coasts. It is already necessary to prepare for it.

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